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Fiscal Rules Post-COVID: Using the Recovery Phase to Reduce Debt Ratios

Francesco Corti (CEPS) and Daniel Gros (CEPS)

The Commission has recently launched a review of the economic governance rules. One reason for this (re-)launch is that it is widely assumed that the debt reduction criterion cannot and should not be enforced when the suspension of the fiscal rules motivated by the Covid crisis ends. The main reason given is that debt levels have increased and that this makes it more difficult to reach the debt reduction target, which is one twentieth of the difference between the actual and the 60% reference value. However, this argument is wrong. The debt reduction criterion becomes easier to achieve during the post-Covid recovery phase because nominal GDP growth is higher than before the crisis, thus reducing the primary surplus required to achieve any given reduction in the debt to GDP ratio.

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30 Years of Mercosur – Status Quo and Future Integration Steps

Andreas Baur, Lisandra Flach and Feodora Teti (ifo Institute and LMU Munich)

Thirty years after its foundation, Mercosur’s member countries have little reason to celebrate. On the one hand, trade liberalization within Mercosur in the first years after its foundation have led to an intensification of intra-Mercosur trade and can be regarded as an early success. On the other hand, the transition from a trade agreement to a customs union has failed and deeper integration steps hardly seem feasible. In the past 10 years, China has overtaken the EU as Mercosur’s most important trading partner, resulting in trade flows shifting away from Europe to the Chinese market. What’s more, integration into global supply chains has been successful only in places. In light of this, the EU-Mercosur trade agreement could play an important role – argue Andreas Baur, Lisandra Flach and Feodora Teti.

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Vaccines: How to Use Market-Based Incentives to Ramp Up Production

Clemens Fuest and Daniel Gros

Economic incentives to accelerate vaccine production would be much more productive than the empty threat of suing AstraZeneca. The additional cost for boosting vaccine supply for Europe might run into a couple of billions of euros, but this would be a lot less than the cost of prolonged disruption to the economy and society, let alone the lives lost. Clemens Fuest and Daniel Gros examine the EU's mistakes. 

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The Advantages of the Division of Labour Also Apply to Economic Policy: The Green New Deal

Clemens Fuest (ifo Institute)

Even in times of the corona pandemic, environmental and climate protection are among the dominant topics in the economic policy debate. This is justified. Global warming is one of the greatest challenges of our time. Tackling it requires a transformation of the economy. CO2 emissions must to be reduced, and we need to adapt to the climate change that has already occurred or will occur despite all efforts. European policymakers have set out to drive this transformation under the banner of the Green New Deal. The objectives of the Green New Deal are shared by a large majority of the population. But it is controversial how and with which instruments these goals should be pursued.

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Plugging Carbon Leaks

Stefan Ambec and Claude Crampes (EconPol Europe and Toulouse School of Economics)

The border adjustment mechanism proposed by the European Commission is designed to reduce imported CO2 emissions. An attractive initiative on paper but whose implementation is a real headache as it conflicts with the trade negotiations conducted by the same Commission. Stefan Ambec and Claude Crampes (EconPol Europe and Toulouse School of Economics) examine the plans and consider the solutions.

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The Priorities of Public Buyers

Sebastian Blesse

Public procurement officials make substantial decisions for public good provision, and their decisions have widespread welfare implications. Yet despite the importance of these decisions, there can be a lot of discretion applied by the individuals awarding public sector contracts. EconPol network member Sebastian Blesse (ZEW) and co-authors Janne Tukiainen, Albrecht Bohne, Leonardo Giuffrida, Jan Jääskeläinen, Ari Luukinen and Antti Sieppi investigated the decisions made by public procurement officials in contracting bureaus in government offices of various types across states, regions and municipalities in Finland, Germany and Italy to examine the level of discretion they were able to apply.

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Explained: the Insurance Properties of Common Debt Issuance in the European Union

Daniel Gros

The Covid-19 crisis has led to a common European fiscal response in the form of the €750 billion Next Generation EU (NGEU) package agreed by EU leaders in July 2020. One important novelty of this package is that it will involve, for the first time, the issuance of substantial common European debt - Daniel Gros explains what this means for the EU and its Member States.

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How Financial Regulation Can Help Save the Planet

Antonio Cabrales

Global authorities have longstanding worries about the impact of financial contagion on the economy: the domino effect of a failing bank can have severe repercussions, as the 2008 financial crash illustrated. To deal with these potential shocks, regulators and financial institutions have implemented risk management systems and processes designed to minimize the likelihood that such an event will be able to destroy the economy again. However, while these new frameworks and increased capital reserves go a long way to protecting financial institutions, according to economist Antonio Cabrales there is one area that is being overlooked: the link between financial systems and climate change.

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Online Public Procurement System Reduces Collusion in Ukraine

Vitezslav Titl

An  e-procurement system launched by the central government in Ukraine in 2016 reduces collusion and leads to better market outcomes, according to research carried out by Bruno Baranek, Leon Musolff and Vitezslav Titl. The system allows members of the public to leave reviews on public procurement processes – and there’s little evidence of it being used to sabotage rival businesses. This research exploits a unique setting in Ukraine and illustrates that online public monitoring of procurement markets can eliminate collusion and improve market outcomes. The 2016 reform allows citizens to observe complete information about procurement contracts and comment, review, monitor, and submit abuse reports.

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Auctioning Renewable Energy: How to Put a Price On It?

Natalia Fabra

The European Commission has set one of its key climate and energy targets as achieving a share of at least 32% for renewable energy over total energy consumed by 2030. But despite such a large share up for grabs, the methods by which renewable energy is bought and sold are far from clear. Renewable energy auctions have been implemented globally; they’re currently taking place in most countries in Europe and beyond 100 countries around the world. But, says Natalia Fabra of EconPol Europe and Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, there’s no uniformity about the way the auctions are being run, with each country using their own system.

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