Trump’s trade war on China – who laughs last?
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In this issue:
- EEAG report on the European Economy 2019
- We examine the latest figures in the US/China trade war
- Incentivising structural reforms in Europe
- Will the Italian budget cause the death of the European banking union?
- Activism pressure and the market for corporate assets
- Upcoming events
- Plus all the latest news from our partners
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EEAG report on the European Economy 2019
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EconPol Europe speaker Clemens Fuest has expressed his concern about the state of the European Union, during the launch of a report released by the EEAG research group. "The EU resembles more and more the Habsburg Empire towards its end, when internal and external forces were striving towards disintegration," he said. "The EU, its member states and parliament must take countermeasures. First, the EU must do everything it can to avoid a hard Brexit at the end of March. In the face of trade turmoil, Europe should also remember that it is one of the last bastions of a rule-based, multilateral international order. The EU should therefore work closely with similarly oriented countries such as Canada, Australia, Japan, India, the countries of Southeast Asia and, where possible, China."
The EEAG research group consists of seven international economists, including EconPol members Clemens Fuest (ifo) and Jan-Egbert Sturm (ETH Zurich).
Read the report.
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Trump’s trade war on China – who laughs last?
A modern general equilibrium trade model to simulate the effects of the Chinese-American trade dispute finds that both economies lose, but China loses absolutely and relatively much more. In our latest policy brief, the authors analyse the potential impacts of an escalating trade war and find that while the bilateral trade balance of the US with China improves, it deteriorates with the EU and forebodes further transatlantic conflict.
Press release
EconPol policy brief 13
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Incentivising structural reforms in Europe?
How can a faster implementation of structural reforms fostering the process of economic convergence in Europe be achieved? In our latest policy brief, EconPol researchers discuss the rationale and potential adverse effects of providing financial incentives for structural reforms and present a proposal of national convergence roadmaps. Although these proposals deviate from the Commission proposal in some key dimensions, they reflect the fact that ensuring progress towards convergence targets is primarily a responsibility of the individual member states - not of the EU or European institutions and bodies like the European Commission and the Eurogroup.
Press release
EconPol policy brief 14
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The death of the European Banking Union
In July 2017, Louis Rouanet argued that the bail out of two Italian banks, Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vicenza, would be a ‘deathblow to the European Banking Union’. EconPol researcher Timo Wollmershäuser agrees, and says the correlation between risk premia for sovereigns and banks has since sharply increased to the high levels observed before the start of the Banking Union.
EconPol opinion 15
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Activism pressure and the market for corporate assets
Does activism affect the acquisition and asset sale decisions of firms that are only indirectly affected by activists? Has activism grown sufficiently in importance that it influences the equilibrium in corporate asset markets, and what is its impact on the liquidity and efficiency of these markets? These are the questions posed by EconPol researcher Ulrich Hege and his co-author Yifei Zhang in this EconPol opinion examining the rise of shareholder activism and its international expansion.
EconPol opinion 16
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Joint ZEW-EconPol Lunch Debate
Reforming the Eurozone: How to Handle Sovereign Debt?
28.03.2019 | 12:00 – 14:00, Representation of the State of Baden-Württemberg to the European Union, Rue Belliard 60 – 62, 1000 Brussels
Venice Summer Institute 2019
Taxation in the Digital Economy: Theory and Evidence
03.06.2019 | 9:00 – 14:00, San Servolo, Venice, Italy
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EconPol Europe is a cross-border voice for research in Europe, providing research-based contributions aimed at promoting growth, prosperity and social cohesion in Europe and, in particular, the European and Monetary Union. Our mission is to contribute our research findings to help solve the pressing economic and fiscal policy issues facing the European Union, and to anchor more deeply the idea of a united Europe within member states.
Our joint interdisciplinary research covers:
• sustainable growth and best practice,
• reform of EU policies and the EU budget,
• capital markets and the regulation of the financial sector and
• governance and macroeconomic policy in the European Monetary Union.
If you would like further information about EconPol Europe, please contact Juliet Shaw at shaw@econpol.eu
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