EconPol Working Paper Series

Cover of EconPol Working Paper 26

Your Vote is (no) Secret! How Low Voter Density Harms Voter Anonymity and Biases Elections in Italy

Mauro Caselli, Paolo Falco

The density of voters in polling regions limits the secrecy of voting and can affect the outcome of Italian elections, with the same impact on countries with a similar voting mechanism. In the first study to analyze the link between voter density and election bias, authors Mauro Caselli (University of Trento) and Paolo Falco (University of Copenhagen) examined all municipal elections conducted in Italy from 1989 to 2015. They found that lower voter density significantly increases the probability of re-election for an incumbent in a municipal office, while in areas with a higher number of voters the probability of re-election for an incumbent falls.

... Details
Cover of EconPol Working Paper 25

Taxation and Public Spending Efficiency: An International Comparison

António Afonso, João Tovar Jalles, Ana Venâncio

This EconPol paper evaluates the relevance of the taxation for public spending efficiency in a sample of OECD economies in the period 2003-2017. It finds that inputs could be theoretically lower by approximately 32-34%; the Malmquist indices show an overall decrease in technology and in TFP. Crucial for policymaking, the authors find that expenditure efficiency is negatively associated with taxation, more specifically direct and indirect taxes negatively affect government efficiency performance. The same is true for social security contributions.

... Details
Cover of EconPol Working Paper 24

Immigration and electoral support for the far-left and the far-right

Anthony Edo, Yvonne Giesing, Jonathan Öztunc, Panu Poutvaara

Immigration increases support for far-right political candidates and reduces support for far-left candidates, with areas with low-educated non-European immigrants providing the biggest boost to the far-right. These are the conclusions of a paper released by EconPol Europe. In the paper, forthcoming in the June issue of the European Economic Review, researchers examined to what extent changes in immigration and trade patterns explain voting for far-left and far-right candidates in French presidential elections from 1988 until 2017. They control for the effects of changes in unemployment, education, and demographics.

... Details
Cover of EconPol Working Paper 22

The effects of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond spreads: an event study from the EMU

António Afonso, João Tovar Jalles, Mina Kazemi

In this EconPol working paper, the authors assess the impact of announcements corresponding to different fiscal and monetary policy measures on 10-year sovereign bond yield spreads. They find that the European Commission’s releases of excessive deficit procedure have a significant impact on the yield spreads. EC releases of higher debt and better budget balance forecasts contribute to the rise and decline of spreads, respectively.

... Details