Energy, Climate Change & Environment

The EU faces the challenge to combine large and sustained investments to promote the transition towards a green, digital, and competitive Europe while maintaining fiscal sustainability. Based on a comprehensive literature review on the effects of fiscal rules and investment clauses on public finances, this in-depth analysis provides some guidance how higher public investments can be achieved by a targeted golden rule without harming fiscal sustainability in the EU fiscal framework. The study also discusses the role of investments in the current proposals of the European Commission on the reform of the EU Economic Governance.

The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) promotes renewable energy and contributes to climate protection, but also offers generous tax credits and subsidies to incentivize production in the United States. While the planned generosity of the program has sparked an intense debate about potential negative spillover effects on the global economy, little is known about the quantity of potential adverse effects. In the new EconPol Policy Report the authors conduct a large-scale international survey among leading economic experts worldwide to quantify the effect of the US Inflation reduction act on the global economy. On a global scale, experts are little concerned about negative effects of the IRA on their domestic economy, estimating both the impact on national output and the risk of business outflows to be low. However, we uncover large heterogeneity in the potential impact of the IRA across countries and regions. In Europe, particularly in France and Germany, economic experts are highly concerned about the IRA and expect a significant effect of the IRA on the domestic economy. In terms of economic policy reactions, roughly 41% of the respondents support economic countermeasures.

The financial sector may play a central role in climate change. This is because, ideally, climate policy measures create important incentives for investors throughout the globalized world to redirect their capital in favor of a cleaner production and thus lower emissions. That is why climate policy must consider the link between the real sector and the financial sector. This transition will not happen by itself. It requires targeted financing measures. To make it effective, policymakers need information about what economic activity, and thus what investment, can be considered green or sustainable. The task is to identify and compile relevant data and provide it to investors in a suitable classification, e.g., via an ESG rating or a taxonomy. Our authors in the “Policy Debate of the Hour” discuss to which extent green finance can make the economy greener. They also examine the role the financial sector can play in this transition. Among other things, they shed light on how “green” can be measured and look at the role of climate policy and incentive effects. They also provide recommendations for both economic and climate policy. In our “Economic Policy and its Impact” section, the authors shed light on the question of how teaching evolutionary theory changes students' knowledge and important choices in their life. In “Institutions Across the World” we discuss how policymakers can create incentives for households to follow tax rules when they use household-related services. The section “Big Data-Based Economic Insights” uses a textual analysis to look at remarks made in ECB press conferences.

The current energy crisis in Europe is bringing about profound changes that can accelerate the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system. Yet, it is a supply shock of unprecedented scale and complexity, most noticeable in the markets for natural gas, coal, and electricity. Winter promises to be tough - especially for low-income households that use gas for heating and for small and medium-sized industrial companies. Short-term policy measures aim to shield consumers from the effects of the crisis: these include gas and electricity price brakes and energy subsidies for households. At the same time, many governments in the EU are now trying to increase or diversify oil and gas supplies and also accelerate structural change. The articles in the “Policy Debate of the Hour” section of this issue of EconPol Forum examine the causes of the crisis, analyze its effects, critically assess the policies already in place, and propose new short- to medium-term energy policies to better manage it and strengthen the EU’s systemic resilience to energy market volatility.