Narratives in ECB Press Conferences: A Textual Analysis


Justyna Klejdysz

Our paper quantifies ECB communication on the Governing Council meeting days. The key questions we address are as follows: What are the main communication patterns in the ECB press conference? Do shifts in communication patterns affect stock market volatility on the Governing Council meeting days?

Key Messages

  • Topic analysis of the European Central Bank (ECB) press conferences reveals meaningful communication patterns
  • Similar press conferences are clustered in time
  • The revisions to the ECB narrative accompany the changes in policy direction
  • Market volatility increases when the ECB substantially updates its wording in the monetary analysis section as compared to keeping it rather static relative to the previous period
  • Shifts in ECB communication introduce incremental volatility above and beyond that created by a change in policy stance

Justyna Klejdysz: “Narratives in ECB Press Conferences: A Textual Analysis,” EconPol Forum 24 (1), CESifo, Munich, 2023.