EconPol Policy Briefs

Defense spending above the NATO target of 2 percent of gross domestic product would be necessary for Europe to be able to defend itself without the protective umbrella of the United States. This is the conclusion of the new EconPol Policy Brief. European countries would have to significantly increase their efforts to catch up with an adequate defense capability, as defense budgets and military investments have been too low for years. Europe must compensate for higher real military costs than, for example, in Russia or China.

How do German firms view the upcoming US election and a possible second Donald Trump presidency? As part of the ifo Business Survey in September 2024, more than 2,000 German manufacturing firms were asked about the US election. 44 percent of German manufacturing firms anticipate negative impacts on their business situation if Donald Trump wins the election, compared to a potential Kamala Harris presidency.

The downfall of Credit Suisse should serve as a lesson that supervisory board competence determines the long-term risk of a bank. In Germany, this idea is also enshrined in law. But this study of German banks shows, there is still a long way to go.

Rising protectionism and geoeconomic tensions pose a major challenge, especially for the EU. In many cases, however, the key to strengthening economic security lies in deepening international trade relations, not in protecting domestic production. This policy brief presents four propositions on the future direction of the EU’s foreign economic policy.

In the new legislative period, the EU Commission will need a well-thought-out economic policy agenda to respond to the changed geopolitical challenges and to strengthen its competitiveness. This policy brief analyzes the main economic challenges ahead.