What if? The Economic Effects for Germany of a Stop of Energy Imports from Russia
This article discusses the economic effects of a potential cut-off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to a GDP decline in range between 0.5% and 3% (cf. the GDP decline in 2020 during the pandemic was 4.5%).
Rüdiger Bachmann, David Baqaee, Christian Bayer, Moritz Kuhn, Andreas Löschel, Benjamin Moll, Andreas Peichl,
Karen Pittel, Moritz Schularick: “What if? The Economic Effects for Germany of a Stop of Energy Imports from Russia,” EconPol Policy Report 36, March 2022.