Overview publications

The debate over the next EU budget is already heating up. In early May the European Commission will publish its proposal for the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for the years 2021-2027. Agricultural subsidies and regional transfers are likely to continue to swallow a large share of the EU budget. In view of the acute legitimacy crisis facing the EU, this spending structure calls for reform. The Commission has recommended using “European added value” (EAV) as a reform criterion. This policy brief considers whether allocating competences more effectively between the EU and its member states could boost the EU’s performance.

As the EU attempts to progress along its path of ever closer union and bold enlargement, the European Economic Advisory Group (EEAG) report 2018 focuses on the symptoms of and possible cures for the current integration malaise. It highlights the role of trust in allowing national and supranational organisations to function; reviews the role of admission criteria and governance rules, and considers economic convergences and public policies across EU states.

Dynamic scoring, or the evaluation of tax reform effects, is common practice in the US, but has never been applied to the EU’s fiscal governance framework. Adopting a novel approach, the authors analyse hypothetical reforms of the social insurance contributions system in Belgium. They find that the self-financing effect of a reduction in employers’ social insurance contributions is far greater than that of a comparable reduction in employees’ social insurance contributions.

On December 5, 2017, the European institutions - Commission, Council, and Parliament - reached political agreement on reforming the EU’s trade defense instruments. This “modernization” of anti-dumping legislation is, in fact, an attempt to provide the EU with stronger tools to tackle the allegedly “unfair” practices of its trade partners. On its website, the Commission advertises that the deal will enable the EU to impose higher duties on dumped products. Does Germany’s position signal a new and worrying stance toward free trade?

In view of loud complaints over alleged austerity policy in Europe, the call for tougher debt ceilings seems untimely. It is claimed that the current rules are too restrictive and will hamper public investment. The next German federal government's position on reforming European Monetary Union is one of the main issues on the table in the coalition negotiations and it is highly controversial. ifo President Clemens Fuest is convinced that a serious application of the existing concepts for ensuring sustainable fiscal policy would call for stricter, not softer debt rules. This Opinion explains why Europe needs stricter debt rules and should not follow in Japan’s footsteps.

A key remaining issue for the completion of the Banking Union is the concentrated exposure of banks in many countries to their own sovereign. This paper examines the belief that banks should be allowed to buy large amounts of their own sovereign so that they can stabilise the market in a crisis and argues that it is mistaken for two reasons. In the first instance, banks are only intermediaries for private savings, and secondly, banks have a higher cost of funding than do their sovereign. The overall conclusion is that governments should make it more attractive for households (and other real money investors) to hold government debt directly.

How can the euro area tackle its perennial problems of core/periphery imbalances and anaemic long-term growth? According to network members Luigi Bonatti and Andrea Fracasso, Università di Trento, there is no quick-fix solution. Temporary fiscal stimulus does not produce permanent improvements, while the upfront costs and short-term negative impact of structural reforms can feed distributional conflicts. Permanent cross-national transfers provide local relief, but also exacerbate tensions among member states. The authors advocate a nuanced approach focused on the key role of structural differences in affecting income and growth differentials, as well as competitive imbalances across the euro area.

On 29 March 2017, the UK Government notified its exit to the EU in accordance with Article 50 of the EU Treaty.1 Brexit is therefore officially initiated. On 29 April, the Heads of State and Government of the European Council adopted the guidelines for negotiations between the EU and the UK in accordance with Article 50 TEU. Negotiations between the EU27 and the UK on the important issues of exit and discussions on future political and economic relations between the EU27 and the UK have begun in July 2017 and have proven difficult since then.

Accountability bonds revive market discipline in the Eurozone without endangering fiscal and financial stability - and they address the various concerns from difference sides. Clemens Fuest (ifo Institute) and Friedrich Heinemann (ZEW) have proposed the new type of bonds for overcoming the debt crisis in the Eurozone two years ago. In our new EconPol Policy Brief, the two EconPol network members revisit their concept of accountability bonds in the light of current developments, respond to criticism and explain why they are an innovative instrument that stand a real chance of building a consensus, now more than ever.