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EconPol Europe World Economic Survey: Experts Predict Severe Global Recession, With No Growth Until 2021

A global survey of economic experts on the effects of the COVID-19 crisis reveals almost all countries expect a severe recession in 2020, with pre-crisis levels not expected to be reached before 2021. Of available policy options, emergency liquidity assistance to firms and temporary tax deferrals for businesses are deemed to be most effective.

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EconPol Europe: Recession in Portugal Could Cause Budget Deficit of up to 4% of GDP, Portuguese Government Must Step in to Cover ‘Significant’ Cut in Household Spending

An EconPol Europe report estimating the real growth rate of GDP in Portugal in 2020 predicts a budget deficit of around 3% or 4% of GDP, implying a break and not a fiscal regime switch.

Of particular relevance, says author António Afonso (EconPol Europe, Lisbon School of Economics and Management of the Universidade de Lisboa) is private consumption and investment, with households cutting spending significantly and an increase in government spending necessary to cover the lack of domestic demand.

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