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The Economic Costs of the Coronavirus Shutdown for Selected European Countries: A Scenario Calculation

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EconPol Policy Brief
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This paper presents scenarios of the shutdown costs related to Covid-19 in terms of lost value added for Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Switzerland and UK: the shutdown phase will lead to considerable production losses and large declines in GDP this year and, lasting longer than a month, the losses within the EU quickly reach dimensions well beyond the growth slump of previous recessions or natural disasters.

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Group Testing Against Covid-19

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EconPol Policy Brief
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In this paper, Christian Gollier (EconPol Europe, Toulouse School of Economics University of Toulouse- Capitole) and Olivier Gossner (CNRS – CREST, Ecole Polytechnique, London School of Economics) show how group testing can be optimized in three applications to multiply the efficiency of tests against Covid-19: Estimating virus prevalence to measure the evolution of the pandemic; bringing negative groups back to work to exit the current lockdown; and testing for individual infectious status to treat sick people. 

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Portugal’s GDP, a Note on the 2020 Unknowns

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EconPol Policy Brief
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António Afonso (EconPol Europe, Lisbon School of Economics and Management of the Universidade de Lisboa) has estimated the real growth rate of GDP in Portugal in 2020 and predicts a budget deficit of around 3% or 4% of GDP, implying a break and not a fiscal regime switch. Of particular relevance, he says, is private consumption and investment, with households cutting spending significantly and an increase in government spending necessary to cover the lack of domestic demand.

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One Europe, One Future

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EconPol Opinion
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In the current context of difficult times across Europe and in the World, there are relevant issues on which many people might agree, regardless of their political, ideological or theoretical views - António Afonso examines the options available and asks for compromise.

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Wage Rigidities and Old-Age Unemployment

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EconPol Policy Brief
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Wage smoothing is beneficial for firms and workers, but wage rigidities can lead to bilaterally inefficient separations: by comparing the impact of four policy measures regarding their impact on welfare, output and government expenditures, Martin Kerndler (TU Wien) and Michael Reiter (IHS Vienna, NYU Abu Dhabi, EconPol Europe) have identified a reasonable policy mix to counter the negative employment effects of wage rigidities. 

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