Overview publications

The current energy crisis in Europe is bringing about profound changes that can accelerate the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system. Yet, it is a supply shock of unprecedented scale and complexity, most noticeable in the markets for natural gas, coal, and electricity. Winter promises to be tough - especially for low-income households that use gas for heating and for small and medium-sized industrial companies. Short-term policy measures aim to shield consumers from the effects of the crisis: these include gas and electricity price brakes and energy subsidies for households. At the same time, many governments in the EU are now trying to increase or diversify oil and gas supplies and also accelerate structural change. The articles in the “Policy Debate of the Hour” section of this issue of EconPol Forum examine the causes of the crisis, analyze its effects, critically assess the policies already in place, and propose new short- to medium-term energy policies to better manage it and strengthen the EU’s systemic resilience to energy market volatility.

How successful have efforts been to socially integrate Syrian migrants in Germany? What factors influence social integration? Together with researchers from Harvard and Meta, we address these questions in a new research paper working with de-identified data from Facebook.

In October 2021, 136 countries and jurisdictions agreed on the introduction of a global effective minimum tax (OECD 2021). The plan is to impose a minimum tax rate of 15 percent on the global profits of multinational corporations (MNCs). If an MNC’s effective tax burden in a country is less than 15 percent, additional taxes will be collected until the ratio of tax payments to profits reaches a level of 15 percent. This is to affect all MNCs whose global consolidated revenue is at least €750 million.

The Covid-19 pandemic triggered a huge, sudden uptake in work from home, as individuals and organizations responded to contagion fears and government restrictions on commercial and social activities. Over time, it has become evident that the big shift to work from home will endure after the pandemic ends. No other episode in modern history involves such a pronounced and widespread shift in working arrangements in such a compressed time frame.

In the new Policy Brief the authors present the results of two waves of quantitative online surveys of Ukrainian refugees in Germany. They were asked whether they plan to stay in Germany and whether they are already employed or plan to search for employment, as well as the factors that determine these. The second wave of the survey clarified the socio-demographic characteristics of refugees from Ukraine, the circumstances of their arrival and adaptation in Germany, and demonstrates the dynamics of changes in their plans and intentions.

Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the configuration of international supply chains has received increased public attention. Pandemic-related disruptions in production and transportation have led to questions about the reliability of international production networks. Moreover, the war in Ukraine and the associated sanctions against Russia have cast a new light on the geopolitical significance of economic interdependencies with autocratic regimes. How do firms react to these developments, and have they already adjusted their sourcing strategies? In this policy brief, we present the results from a representative survey of more than 4,000 firms in Germany, providing insights into how companies have responded to supply chain disruptions and which priorities they are setting for the future.

In this issue of the EconPol Forum, our authors discuss how Europe can more effectively address all these challenges and solve the associated labor market problems caused by rapid structural change. The authors also provide helpful policy recommendations for national governments and EU companies.

Economic research has always emphasized the importance of a well-educated population for the level and dynamics of per capita income and other key economic variables. Foreseeable demographic changes – especially the stagnation or even decline of the active labor force – make investments in the quality of human capital particularly necessary.

There are three major challenges that today will force a rethinking of public goods: each of them may be thought of in terms of fundamental challenges to security, personal and national. One is the existential threat of climate change, and the bizarre geopolitical consequences of that change. The second is the impact of AI on labor market practices. AI is not only an obvious threat to employment, but also a security challenge. The third related challenge is the monetary revolution that is being produced by new technologies such as blockchain, and the consequent possibility of generating non-state moneys.

The following article provides an overview of four projects that assess the effects of regulation and taxation as well as the pandemic’s impact on the German real estate market, using large-scale property price as well as survey data. The projects aim to provide answers to the following questions: Do subsidies make housing purchases more affordable? How do real estate transfer taxes affect house prices? How does rent regulation such as the Berlin rent cap affect the real estate market? And, which future trends in the housing market can be expected given the pandemic’s potentially long-lasting impacts on residential preferences?